一週期權回顧(20/3-24/3)
一週期權回顧(20/3-24/3)
交易日 | 全日最低 | 指數收市 | 點數變動 | 全日最高 | 恒指波幅指數 | ||
17/3/2017 | 24257 | 24299 | -30 | 24411 | 12.68 | ||
20/3/2017 | 24294 | 24541 | +242 | 24594 | 12.92 | ||
21/3/2017 | 24509 | 24610 | +69 | 24678 | 13.19 | ||
22/3/2017 | 24227 | 24302 | -308 | 24395 | 13.81 | ||
23/3/2017 | 24294 | 24350 | +48 | 24465 | 13.47 | ||
24/3/2017 | 24281 | 24381 | +31 | 24449 | 13.29 |
20/3 期權倉位重點成交
CONTRACT MONTH | STRIKE PRICE | C/P | *OPENING PRICE | *DAILY HIGH | *DAILY LOW | O.Q.P. CLOSE | O.Q.P. CHANGE | IV% | VOLUME | OPEN INTEREST | CHANGE IN OI |
Mar-17 | 24200 | C | 255 | 405 | 248 | 405 | 149 | 11 | 746 | 2637 | -73 |
Mar-17 | 24400 | C | 150 | 271 | 145 | 266 | 112 | 11 | 2354 | 3408 | -112 |
Mar-17 | 24600 | C | 85 | 160 | 78 | 159 | 73 | 11 | 3627 | 3897 | 60 |
Mar-17 | 24800 | C | 44 | 86 | 38 | 84 | 40 | 11 | 3526 | 2713 | 421 |
Mar-17 | 25000 | C | 21 | 42 | 19 | 41 | 20 | 11 | 1951 | 3980 | 255 |
Mar-17 | 25200 | C | 10 | 18 | 8 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 1018 | 2792 | 136 |
Mar-17 | 25400 | C | 4 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 698 | 2057 | 509 |
Mar-17 | 23000 | P | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 15 | 1724 | 5830 | 317 |
Mar-17 | 23200 | P | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | -5 | 14 | 542 | 3631 | 101 |
Mar-17 | 23400 | P | 14 | 14 | 5 | 4 | -10 | 13 | 700 | 3392 | 51 |
Mar-17 | 23600 | P | 25 | 25 | 10 | 8 | -18 | 13 | 1327 | 3405 | 280 |
Mar-17 | 23800 | P | 46 | 46 | 18 | 18 | -32 | 12 | 1713 | 4857 | 161 |
Mar-17 | 24000 | P | 85 | 85 | 34 | 35 | -54 | 12 | 2700 | 3951 | -20 |
Mar-17 | 24200 | P | 110 | 153 | 66 | 69 | -87 | 12 | 2270 | 1262 | 273 |
Mar-17 | 24400 | P | 240 | 245 | 123 | 125 | -129 | 11 | 1672 | 1057 | 304 |
Mar-17 | 24600 | P | 367 | 367 | 216 | 216 | -169 | 11 | 578 | 583 | 390 |
Mar-17 | 24800 | P | 526 | 526 | 338 | 340 | -204 | 11 | 190 | 159 | 151 |
Apr-17 | 24800 | C | 195 | 267 | 190 | 267 | 70 | 11 | 707 | 1142 | 327 |
Apr-17 | 23000 | P | 57 | 57 | 39 | 39 | -23 | 14 | 560 | 2810 | 154 |
Apr-17 | 23200 | P | 78 | 79 | 54 | 55 | -27 | 14 | 759 | 824 | -206 |
Apr-17 | 23400 | P | 106 | 107 | 74 | 74 | -38 | 13 | 418 | 1793 | 159 |
Apr-17 | 23600 | P | 146 | 146 | 101 | 101 | -50 | 13 | 210 | 1019 | 9 |
Apr-17 | 23800 | P | 193 | 193 | 137 | 137 | -64 | 13 | 211 | 1102 | 61 |
Apr-17 | 24000 | P | 257 | 257 | 185 | 185 | -78 | 12 | 475 | 1318 | 170 |
Apr-17 | 24200 | P | 318 | 326 | 245 | 245 | -99 | 12 | 355 | 1334 | -40 |
Apr-17 | 24400 | P | 430 | 430 | 338 | 320 | -120 | 12 | 199 | 196 | 100 |
Apr-17 | 24600 | P | 503 | 503 | 412 | 412 | -140 | 12 | 91 | 99 | 68 |
May-17 | 24000 | P | 470 | 470 | 397 | 397 | -95 | 13 | 238 | 736 | 213 |
今天再度突破上星期五高位,一度高見24490。今早出現引伸波幅上升,其實大家可以比較今天和星期五的引伸波幅與期指走勢,再參詳一下我的內容,大家便更可以清楚明白HSF n IV 的變化
尾市再度突破上午高位24490,收市升幅擴大收報24541,基本上由星期四開始的突破已經成型,一天未跌破24100絕不可做淡。
可惜繼上星期車仔股洗倉外,今天輪到2隻新貴美圖與周黑鴨狂升後洗倉,既然異象頻生,今天尾市我亦履行自己一週回顧內的部署以沽期@24490 作減Delta外,並開始部署作雙邊暗渡240&246。
大牛市逆勢而行,並不值得鼓勵。
再度観乎OI表現,似還有200多點空間上升。雖然in the money call繼續減少,但似乎救倉人士已經把244C再向上400點急救中
今天是吉日,應該盡量把握機會做 貴利皇,至於雙邊暗渡如果今明兩天出手未必見成果,至少持有至星期四才有收成
21/3 期權倉位重點成交
CONTRACT MONTH | STRIKE PRICE | C/P | *OPENING PRICE | *DAILY HIGH | *DAILY LOW | O.Q.P. CLOSE | O.Q.P. CHANGE | IV% | VOLUME | OPEN INTEREST | CHANGE IN OI |
Mar-17 | 24200 | C | 413 | 520 | 386 | 458 | 53 | 12 | 374 | 2470 | -167 |
Mar-17 | 24400 | C | 270 | 355 | 246 | 301 | 35 | 11 | 1263 | 3346 | -62 |
Mar-17 | 24600 | C | 155 | 229 | 142 | 180 | 21 | 11 | 3152 | 3663 | -234 |
Mar-17 | 24800 | C | 83 | 133 | 74 | 97 | 13 | 11 | 3603 | 3035 | 322 |
Mar-17 | 25000 | C | 44 | 71 | 35 | 47 | 6 | 11 | 2593 | 4118 | 138 |
Mar-17 | 25200 | C | 18 | 33 | 15 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 1873 | 2984 | 192 |
Mar-17 | 25400 | C | 8 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 1415 | 2553 | 496 |
Mar-17 | 22800 | P | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1127 | 4803 | 986 |
Mar-17 | 24000 | P | 31 | 37 | 21 | 22 | -13 | 12 | 2205 | 4269 | 318 |
Mar-17 | 24200 | P | 59 | 72 | 43 | 47 | -22 | 12 | 2731 | 1556 | 294 |
Mar-17 | 24400 | P | 108 | 135 | 83 | 94 | -31 | 11 | 3359 | 1827 | 770 |
Mar-17 | 24600 | P | 208 | 234 | 155 | 173 | -43 | 11 | 1599 | 944 | 361 |
Mar-17 | 24800 | P | 330 | 340 | 261 | 285 | -55 | 11 | 391 | 398 | 239 |
Apr-17 | 22200 | P | 13 | 13 | 11 | 7 | -2 | 15 | 1203 | 2529 | 851 |
Apr-17 | 24000 | P | 178 | 189 | 155 | 168 | -17 | 13 | 779 | 1582 | 264 |
Apr-17 | 24200 | P | 236 | 250 | 206 | 224 | -21 | 12 | 612 | 1586 | 252 |
May-17 | 22800 | P | 118 | 123 | 114 | 120 | -8 | 15 | 1096 | 2663 | 1043 |
Dec-17 | 24600 | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1126 | 43 | 15 | 1775 | 1699 | 1475 |
Dec-17 | 23400 | P | 1037 | 1078 | 1037 | 1062 | 5 | 16 | 3257 | 3683 | 2799 |
Dec-17 | 24600 | P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1626 | -10 | 16 | 1575 | 1475 | 1475 |
引伸波幅仍舊沒有回落意圖,期貨依舊在22ma 保頂之上
早上再度突破近日高位,一度升至接近FBS高位24685,中午收報24586。有一點值得留意的是接近中午收市時,引伸波幅有所下跌。
今天依舊是把deep in money call take profit。但同時間發現3,4,5月同時出現大手Put 倉出現,相信不會是保頂開Short Put吧。較新奇的是即月248P 246P,我離座時分別只有15張以及5xx多張成交而己….
22/3 期權倉位重點成交
CONTRACT MONTH | STRIKE PRICE | C/P | *OPENING PRICE | *DAILY HIGH | *DAILY LOW | O.Q.P. CLOSE | O.Q.P. CHANGE | IV% | VOLUME | OPEN INTEREST | CHANGE IN OI |
Mar-17 | 24000 | C | 410 | 450 | 328 | 383 | -246 | 13 | 332 | 3785 | 108 |
Mar-17 | 24200 | C | 250 | 300 | 205 | 250 | -208 | 13 | 740 | 2683 | 213 |
Mar-17 | 24400 | C | 128 | 178 | 109 | 140 | -161 | 12 | 3412 | 3409 | 63 |
Mar-17 | 24600 | C | 150 | 150 | 53 | 71 | -109 | 12 | 4611 | 3955 | 292 |
Mar-17 | 24800 | C | 36 | 50 | 23 | 31 | -66 | 12 | 2471 | 2891 | -144 |
Mar-17 | 25000 | C | 16 | 19 | 9 | 13 | -34 | 12 | 2101 | 4241 | 123 |
Mar-17 | 25200 | C | 6 | 7 | 4 | 4 | -16 | 12 | 1458 | 3282 | 298 |
Mar-17 | 20400 | P | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 1900 | 3428 | 1900 |
Mar-17 | 22800 | P | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 1052 | 3339 | -1464 |
Mar-17 | 23200 | P | 5 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 2071 | 4751 | 1128 |
Mar-17 | 23400 | P | 6 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 2224 | 3921 | 562 |
Mar-17 | 23600 | P | 19 | 29 | 15 | 25 | 20 | 15 | 1533 | 3744 | 270 |
Mar-17 | 23800 | P | 37 | 54 | 30 | 45 | 34 | 14 | 3112 | 5422 | 396 |
Mar-17 | 24000 | P | 60 | 99 | 58 | 83 | 61 | 13 | 4563 | 4405 | 136 |
Mar-17 | 24200 | P | 90 | 172 | 90 | 144 | 97 | 13 | 2772 | 1632 | 76 |
Mar-17 | 24400 | P | 216 | 272 | 186 | 240 | 146 | 12 | 1427 | 1527 | -300 |
Mar-17 | 24600 | P | 301 | 415 | 301 | 363 | 190 | 12 | 304 | 866 | -78 |
Apr-17 | 22200 | P | 19 | 21 | 16 | 17 | 10 | 16 | 722 | 1901 | -628 |
Apr-17 | 23800 | P | 148 | 224 | 148 | 208 | 84 | 13 | 448 | 1332 | 159 |
Apr-17 | 24400 | P | 433 | 472 | 391 | 441 | 144 | 12 | 380 | 202 | -105 |
May-17 | 22800 | P | 160 | 180 | 158 | 171 | 51 | 15 | 897 | 1726 | -937 |
Dec-17 | 24200 | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1173 | -145 | 15 | 900 | 900 | 900 |
Dec-17 | 24200 | P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1578 | 162 | 16 | 900 | 900 | 900 |
昨晚已經提出了要留意的重點: OI change,今天市況用行動證明給大家看,大戶的部署快狠準。
引伸波幅上升有利之前做的Double Side Calendar Spread。尾市有盤開始出現於240P與246C,可能是為了結算作準備。
觀平OI變化,21/3加的3,4,5月所增加的淡倉已經大致上平倉
23/3 期權倉位重點成交
CONTRACT MONTH | STRIKE PRICE | C/P | *OPENING PRICE | *DAILY HIGH | *DAILY LOW | O.Q.P. CLOSE | O.Q.P. CHANGE | IV% | VOLUME | OPEN INTEREST | CHANGE IN OI |
Mar-17 | 24000 | C | 432 | 490 | 381 | 407 | 24 | 13 | 160 | 3733 | -52 |
Mar-17 | 24400 | C | 190 | 205 | 122 | 146 | 6 | 12 | 2154 | 3389 | -20 |
Mar-17 | 23200 | P | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 16 | 716 | 5023 | 272 |
Mar-17 | 23400 | P | 8 | 10 | 5 | 8 | -5 | 16 | 630 | 4034 | 113 |
Mar-17 | 23600 | P | 15 | 18 | 10 | 16 | -9 | 15 | 1320 | 3697 | -47 |
Mar-17 | 23800 | P | 27 | 36 | 20 | 31 | -14 | 14 | 1382 | 5604 | 182 |
Mar-17 | 24000 | P | 55 | 70 | 40 | 60 | -23 | 13 | 2775 | 4673 | 268 |
Mar-17 | 24400 | P | 158 | 223 | 143 | 200 | -40 | 12 | 1108 | 1483 | -44 |
Mar-17 | 24600 | P | 275 | 355 | 252 | 326 | -37 | 12 | 213 | 924 | 58 |
Mar-17 | 24800 | P | 398 | 505 | 398 | 479 | -67 | 12 | 15 | 377 | -12 |
Apr-17 | 25400 | C | 76 | 84 | 61 | 64 | -5 | 12 | 437 | 1030 | 192 |
Apr-17 | 22400 | P | 20 | 23 | 18 | 20 | -5 | 15 | 601 | 2319 | -398 |
Apr-17 | 23600 | P | 127 | 149 | 117 | 137 | -20 | 13 | 569 | 1228 | 153 |
Apr-17 | 23800 | P | 171 | 197 | 157 | 183 | -25 | 13 | 434 | 1434 | 102 |
May-17 | 22000 | P | 75 | 76 | 65 | 72 | -5 | 17 | 456 | 1373 | 439 |
May-17 | 22200 | P | 81 | 82 | 80 | 87 | -10 | 16 | 406 | 631 | 202 |
May-17 | 22800 | P | 150 | 166 | 142 | 157 | -14 | 15 | 466 | 1576 | -150 |
May-17 | 23600 | P | 343 | 343 | 310 | 333 | -27 | 14 | 208 | 882 | 151 |
Dec-17 | 24400 | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1093 | 4 | 16 | 600 | 750 | 591 |
Dec-17 | 24400 | P | 1667 | 1667 | 1667 | 1675 | -12 | 16 | 601 | 616 | 599 |
經過昨天的裂口下挫後,今天曾經高見24460附近,可惜力有不逮,收報24350。即月240P 與 246C是焦點所在,亦是本欄一直推薦的雙邊暗渡之選。
期權OI變化:經過昨天的激情後,一切歸於平淡。
24/3 期權倉位重點成交
CONTRACT MONTH | STRIKE PRICE | C/P | *OPENING PRICE | *DAILY HIGH | *DAILY LOW | O.Q.P. CLOSE | O.Q.P. CHANGE | IV% | VOLUME | OPEN INTEREST | CHANGE IN OI |
MAR-17 | 24400 | C | 180 | 183 | 103 | 139 | -7 | 11 | 3023 | 3142 | -247 |
MAR-17 | 23800 | P | 20 | 32 | 17 | 20 | -11 | 14 | 1225 | 5976 | +372 |
MAR-17 | 24000 | P | 45 | 63 | 35 | 41 | -19 | 13 | 2159 | 5014 | +341 |
MAY-17 | 23600 | P | 341 | 341 | 320 | 314 | -19 | 14 | 145 | 1012 | +130 |
JUN-17 | 26600 | C | 66 | 66 | 58 | 53 | -1 | 13 | 152 | 339 | +152 |
DEC-17 | 24400 | C | 1083 | 1084 | 1083 | 1098 | +5 | 16 | 856 | 1500 | +750 |
DEC-17 | 24400 | P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1615 | -60 | 15 | 850 | 1366 | +750 |
沒有特別大波動的一天,早市一開始有1700張沽盤由420壓去370,然後全天便在370以下徘徊。
觀察OI變化要留意的是240P連續兩天加倉。
策略前瞻
下星期便是第一季的結算日,從近日的盤感,上有245,下有241,但從近兩日240P的手影,以及美股的表現,Long 240/238 put spread 屬保護式的策略。
Remarks: ALL the data given above are calculated based on historical data. It doesn’t mean that the given sceanrio will happen in the coming time.
回覆
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